Sunday, August 14, 2016

We, The People, love it when political campaigns go negative.

Hoke and Spare Change
Although the vast majority of Americans say they don’t like negative political campaigns, many secretly love negative campaigns. How else would it be possible that the most negative candidates in the two major political parties have risen to the top and secured their nominations?
Since their coronations at the Republican and Democrat conventions, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have not disappointed.  He says that she is crooked. She says that he’s unstable.  He says she’s a liar about the emails. She says she short-circuited. He says things that sound ludicrous. She says he’s unstable. He says she’s crooked…
The only end in sight is November 9th, the day after the election. (Of course, if something goes wrong in the ever unpredictable state of Florida, the outcome of the election may not be determined for weeks, as was the case in the historic election of 2000.)
We're not even into September and the schticks the candidates have been using already seem old and worn out. It's quite possible that viewers and voters may develop campaign fatigue. Instead of merely saying that they don’t like negative campaigns, they may actually grow tired of them. By the time we get to October, people may be so bored that they barely notice the October surprises when they are rolled out.
Republican Primary in Florida’s 4th Congressional District
“As August begins, the most interesting narrative in the GOP primary race in Florida’s 4th Congressional District is the back-and-forth between John Rutherford and Hans Tanzler,” writes A.G. Gancarski for Florida Politics.
Rutherford says Tanzler is a political insider. (It seems like an odd accusation from someone who was Jacksonville’s elected Sheriff for twelve years.)  Tanzler says Rutherford isn’t really a conservative. The rhetoric is pretty tame so far. Lake Ray, who is probably the only other candidate with a shot at winning the primary, has begun running non-attack ads.
According to Gancarski, “The other four candidates — Ed Malin, Deborah Pueschel, Bill McClure, and Steve Kaufman — lack the resources to go negative in a meaningful way on their opponents, and as a result they will be vying for the populist outsider track in this race.”
The 4th District has been a Republican stronghold since Tillie Fowler was elected in 1992. Whoever wins the Republican primary at the end of the month will be in a very strong position to win the general election in November. With that in mind, things may heat up a bit in the next few weeks. 

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